India’s retail inflation is expected to have dropped sharply to 0.48% in October 2025, according to a Reuters poll of 42 economists. If confirmed, this would mark the lowest level in over a decade, signalling a significant easing in price pressures across the economy. The fall is largely attributed to lower food prices, reduced commodity costs, and the statistical impact of a high base from the previous year.

Food Prices Drive the Decline

A major reason behind this sharp fall in inflation is the moderation in food prices, which make up nearly half of India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket. Prices of vegetables and key perishables have seen double-digit declines compared to last year, helping cool overall inflation. Additionally, the government’s recent cuts in GST rates and steady global commodity prices have also contributed to keeping inflation in check.

Core Inflation and Wholesale Trends

Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices to show underlying price stability, is estimated to have eased to around 4.3% in October. The wholesale price index (WPI), another key indicator of cost trends in the supply chain, may have declined by about 0.6% year-on-year, reinforcing the signs of broad-based disinflation across sectors.

Implications for the Economy and Investors

This sharp fall in inflation gives the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) more flexibility to consider monetary policy easing in the coming months. Lower inflation can support borrowing, spending, and overall investment activity. Sectors that are sensitive to interest rates such as housing finance, automobiles, and consumer durables could particularly benefit if rates soften further.

However, experts caution that the current drop may be temporary. Factors like erratic weather conditions, potential supply disruptions, or global price movements could lead to a rebound in inflation later in the year. Hence, investors and policymakers alike need to remain watchful of future trends.

Outlook

With inflation nearing historic lows, India’s macroeconomic outlook appears more stable in the short term. The combination of easing prices, resilient growth, and possible rate flexibility from the RBI paints a positive picture for the economy heading into 2026. Yet, sustaining this momentum will depend on maintaining supply stability and ensuring demand does not outpace production.

Source: The Economic Times

At the Bengaluru edition of the Mutual Fund Summit 2025, industry leaders spotlighted how GIFT City is evolving from a regional financial hub into a gateway for Indian investors seeking global exposure.

Once primarily oriented toward attracting foreign capital into India, GIFT City is now being positioned as the bridge through which Indian investors can access international themes such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors and digital infrastructure that were traditionally out of reach. Panelist Vaibhav Shah described it as a “real bridge to the world”.

A Changing Mind-set Among Investors

At the summit, Abhishek Tiwari (CEO, PGIM India MF) noted a discernible shift in investor behaviour: less domestic-only focus, more openness to diversification and global opportunities. Meanwhile, Neil Parikh (CEO, PPFAS) pointed out that exposure to different currencies and geographies strengthens portfolios and helps manage risk-reward dynamics.

Why It Matters for Investors & Financial Advisors

For investors and wealth managers, GIFT City’s evolving role offers strategic potential:

• It widens the investment universe for Indian investors—moving beyond domestic equities and bonds to global infrastructure, technology and value-chain plays via GIFT City.

• Investors might gain added upside from favourable currency exposures and access to different regulatory and structural advantages through the GIFT City platform.

• Advisors should evaluate how client portfolios could incorporate “global via GIFT City” themes, while balancing currency, regulatory and execution risks that come along with stepping outside India-only holdings.

Strategic Outlook & Considerations

While the opportunities are compelling, certain factors need close monitoring:

• The actual rollout of funds and products through GIFT City will determine how accessible and scalable the global-access thesis becomes for retail and HNI investors.

• Currency and regulatory risks remain relevant: leveraging a global platform via GIFT City introduces additional dimensions of risk and reward.

• Investor education and execution capability matter simply gaining access doesn’t guarantee outcome; selecting quality structures, balancing cost and flexibility, and aligning themes with long-term goals remain key.

GIFT City is no longer just a domestic “finance zone” – it’s becoming a strategic gateway for Indian investors to tap global opportunities. As India’s investment ecosystem matures, leveraging platforms like GIFT City can help broaden portfolios, deepen diversification and let advisors frame India-plus-global investment themes. However, execution discipline, cost awareness and risk management will separate the successful from the speculative.

Source: MoneyControl

India and the United States are making meaningful progress in their negotiations toward a bilateral trade agreement (BTA), Commerce & Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on 5 November 2025. He indicated that the discussions are advancing smoothly, though several sensitive and serious issues remain, meaning a final agreement will require additional time and careful alignment.

Progress Report

Goyal noted that the countries have completed multiple rounds of talks and are shifting into phases of ironing out the final wording of the pact, having already converged on many of the substantive issues.  The goal remains to increase bilateral trade significantly, building on the current trade volume of approximately USD 191 billion and aiming toward USD 500 billion by 2030.

For India, successful conclusion of the BTA would deepen access to the U.S. market, attract investment, and strengthen supply-chain integration. For investors and financial advisors, the trajectory signals opportunities in export-oriented industries, manufacturing, technology, and logistics. At the same time, the presence of unresolved “sensitive issues” warns that timing and outcomes remain uncertain.

Strategic Considerations

• While the momentum is positive, firms and funds should be prepared for delays and partial outcomes, given the complexity of the issues under negotiation.

• Companies exposed to U.S. tariffs or dependent on U.S. market access may see valuation upside if a deal is finalised, but risk mitigation remains essential if negotiations stall.

• Advisors should monitor announcements of interim trade packages, indicative language from both governments, and changes in trade flows, tariffs or regulatory alignment ahead of the final BTA.

The India-US trade talks are moving ahead with constructive intent, but the final outcome remains contingent on resolving sensitive trade, regulatory and sector-specific issues. For investors and financial planners, this makes the BTA a medium-term structural theme one worth tracking closely, but not a guarantee of immediate market impact.

Source: The Economic Times

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is revisiting its proposal to limit brokerage fees paid by mutual funds, following widespread concern from asset management companies (AMCs) and market intermediaries. The regulator had earlier proposed a steep reduction from 12 basis points (bps) to 2 bps for cash-market trades and 5 bps to 1 bp for derivatives as part of its broader drive to simplify mutual fund cost structures and enhance transparency.

The Regulatory Rethink

SEBI’s move stems from its ongoing effort to make mutual fund expenses more investor-friendly. Under the original proposal, brokerage and transaction costs would either be included within the Total Expense Ratio (TER) or restricted to strict caps.

However, after reviewing feedback from the industry, SEBI appears open to recalibrating its approach. Officials are now exploring a balanced framework one that maintains investor cost efficiency while allowing AMCs and brokers to sustain their research and execution capabilities, which are vital for fund performance.

The final decision on revised brokerage caps will be made after further consultation and impact assessment.

Balancing Investor Savings and Industry Sustainability

The proposal carries significant implications for multiple stakeholders in the mutual fund ecosystem:

• For Investors: Lower brokerage fees could lead to reduced fund expenses, improving overall returns over time.

• For AMCs and Brokers: A sharp reduction in brokerage income could limit investment in market research, technology, and trade execution, possibly affecting fund efficiency.

• For the Market Ecosystem: The move could accelerate the trend toward cost-efficient, scale-driven operations, pushing fund houses to focus on leaner models.

What It Means for Investors and Advisors

For investors and wealth advisors, SEBI’s evolving fee framework underscores the importance of cost awareness and fund selection discipline.

Investors should look beyond headline expense ratios and evaluate how brokerage and transaction costs impact fund returns. AMCs that effectively manage expenses while retaining strong research and advisory teams could gain a competitive edge in the long run.

Financial advisors, on the other hand, will play a key role in helping clients interpret how these regulatory changes could influence mutual fund cost structures, performance trends, and selection criteria.

Looking Ahead: What to Watch

As the consultation process continues, a few areas merit close attention:

1. Final Fee Caps: The exact levels of revised brokerage caps and their implementation timeline remain under review.

2. Impact on Fund Performance: While cost cuts can benefit investors, they must not come at the cost of research quality or trade execution.

3. Shift Toward Transparency: The reform reinforces SEBI’s long-term goal  a more transparent, competitive, and investor-centric fund industry.

SEBI’s review of the brokerage fee cap reflects a delicate balancing act — lowering costs for investors without compromising market efficiency or institutional sustainability.
The final outcome will shape how mutual funds manage costs, compete for performance, and deliver value to investors in the years ahead.

Source: Financial Express

India’s Rapid Rise in Global Rankings

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has reaffirmed India’s strong growth trajectory, stating that the country is well on its way to becoming the world’s third-largest economy. Over the past decade, India has moved from the 10th position in 2014 to the 5th largest economy today a rise driven by structural reforms, a resilient domestic market, and robust macroeconomic fundamentals.

Speaking at an event at the Delhi School of Economics, Sitharaman highlighted that India’s recovery from global and domestic shocks including the pandemic demonstrates the depth and adaptability of its economy. She credited the nation’s performance to reform-driven governance and continued emphasis on capital formation and inclusive growth.

Strong Economic Fundamentals Supporting Growth

The Finance Minister pointed out that India’s macroeconomic stability has strengthened over the years. The country has seen a remarkable turnaround in the banking sector, with healthier balance sheets, improved asset quality, and better credit flow to the private sector.

Additionally, she noted that over 25 million people have been lifted out of multidimensional poverty, reflecting the success of welfare and job-creation initiatives. This improvement in both financial and social indicators reinforces India’s readiness to scale up as a global growth engine.

Key Drivers of India’s Economic Momentum

Several factors continue to fuel India’s progress toward becoming the third-largest economy:

• Reform-driven growth: Structural reforms across taxation, infrastructure, and financial markets have strengthened business efficiency.

• Domestic demand and consumption: India’s vast consumer base continues to drive internal growth, cushioning against external headwinds.

• Digital and manufacturing expansion: Rapid digitalisation and the government’s push for ‘Make in India’ are transforming productivity and innovation.

• Financial system resilience: Stronger public sector banks and improved credit quality are supporting sustained investment activity.

Opportunities for Investors and Businesses

The Finance Minister’s statement has significant implications for investors and wealth managers. As India moves closer to the top three economies globally, sectors such as infrastructure, financial services, manufacturing, and technology are expected to attract substantial capital inflows.

For long-term investors, this presents a chance to align portfolios with India’s structural growth narrative. Diversified investments across domestic equities, manufacturing-linked funds, and digital infrastructure themes may benefit from this sustained expansion phase.

Challenges and the Road Ahead

While the outlook is optimistic, India must maintain momentum through policy consistency, infrastructure execution, and global competitiveness.
Analysts caution that external challenges such as global trade tensions or commodity price fluctuations could temporarily affect growth. However, strong domestic demand and continued reforms are likely to keep India on a stable trajectory.

India’s steady climb from the 10th to the 5th largest economy underscores its transformation into a global growth powerhouse. With robust fundamentals, policy-driven reforms, and a youthful population, the nation stands firmly on course to become the third-largest economy in the world.

Source: The Economics Times

A new analysis by Cafe Mutual highlights growing investor discipline in India’s mutual fund industry. As of September 2025, the total Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) Assets Under Management (AUM) stood at ₹15.52 lakh crore, with ₹4.73 lakh crore — over 30% — invested for more than five years.

In comparison, about 22% of total SIP AUM (₹3.41 lakh crore) represents investments that are less than one year old, indicating the continued inflow of new investors into the market.

Direct vs Regular Plans: A Clear Divide

The study reveals a notable difference in investor behaviour between direct and regular SIP plans:

• Direct Plans: Only 19% of SIP AUM has been active for more than five years, while nearly 30% has been invested for less than one year.

• Regular Plans: Around 34% of SIP AUM has been active for over five years, and just 20% is less than one year old.

This clearly indicates that investors in regular plans often guided by financial advisors or distributors—tend to stay invested for the long term, while direct investors are more prone to shorter investment periods.

What It Means for Investors

The findings underline several key takeaways for both investors and advisors:

1. Rising Investment Discipline: The high share of long-term SIP assets reflects growing investor maturity and trust in long-term wealth creation.

2. Advisor Value: Regular plan investors, supported by advisors, are more likely to stay invested through market fluctuations.

3. Investor Education: New SIP investors must focus on consistency and time in the market to maximize compounding benefits.

4. Behavioural Edge: Investment success depends more on investor behaviour and less on short-term market movements.

Broader Market Insights

While the overall trend is encouraging, some areas need attention:

• Short-Term SIPs: A large number of new SIPs (<1 year) means investor retention will be crucial in the coming years.

• Volatility Risks: New investors may be tempted to stop SIPs during market downturns, which can hinder wealth creation.

• Advisory Support: The longer tenure of regular plan SIPs reinforces the importance of guided investing.

Over 30% of SIP AUM in India has been active for more than five years, reflecting a strong sense of investment discipline among mutual fund investors. Regular plans have clearly outperformed direct plans in terms of investor retention and long-term commitment, underscoring the value of advisor-led guidance. This trend highlights the growing maturity and confidence of Indian investors in the mutual fund ecosystem. Going forward, continued efforts toward financial literacy and consistent advisory support will play a crucial role in sustaining long-term participation and helping investors stay invested through market cycles.

Source: Cafe Mutual

India’s economy has begun the third quarter of FY26 with solid momentum, according to several high-frequency indicators. Despite global headwinds and domestic challenges, signs of healthy growth are emerging across consumption, manufacturing and digital payments.

Consumption and GST Collections Holding Up

Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections rose by about 4.6 % year-on-year in October, reaching approximately ₹1.96 lakh crore, and hovering near the ₹2-lakh-crore mark for the fourth time in the past seven months. This performance is a positive signal that domestic demand remains resilient, even after recent tax rate adjustments. Analysts note that the strong festive season and improved compliance have contributed to the outcome.

Manufacturing Activity Gaining Pace

On the industrial front, the HSBC Manufacturing PMI climbed to 59.2 in October, up from 57.7 in the previous month — underscoring renewed strength in output, new orders and employment. This sustained momentum suggests that both domestic and export-oriented manufacturing firms are responding positively to recent reforms and market demand.

What This Means for Investors and Advisors

For investors, fund-managers and financial advisors, the early signs from Q3 FY26 are encouraging:

• Strong consumption and industrial indicators reinforce India’s growth-driven investment themes.

• Sectors linked to domestic demand –  such as consumer goods, durable goods, manufacturing and logistics may be better positioned in the near term.

• However, while trends are positive, markets should still account for global risk factors, policy execution and valuation discipline.

  Strategic Outlook & Key Considerations

  While India’s economic indicators point to a strong start to the third quarter, several factors warrant close attention. The key question is whether the current momentum in consumption and industrial activity can be sustained through the remainder of the quarter, especially as festive demand tapers off. External challenges including global trade tensions, commodity price fluctuations, and a potential slowdown in major economies could also test India’s resilience. Additionally, maintaining this growth trajectory will require continued reform-driven investments and a strong push in infrastructure development to translate short-term gains into long-term, sustainable expansion.

  Source: MoneyControl

India’s Goods & Services Tax (GST) collections for October reached approximately ₹1.96 lakh crore, registering a 4.6 % year-on-year rise despite the government’s recent large-scale tax rate reductions across hundreds of items.

Solid Revenue Performance Amidst Rate Rationalisation

The collections number marks the tenth consecutive month in which GST inflows have stayed above the ₹1.8-lakh-crore mark. The strong festive-season demand is believed to have cushioned the impact of the slab rationalisation implemented on 22 September, when multiple tax slabs were merged and many items shifted to lower rates.

Notably, while gross GST collections rose 4.6 %, growth is slower than recent months (which saw ~9 % rises) — indicating the effect of rate cuts and possible postponement of purchases ahead of the new structure.

What This Means for the Economy & Investors

For investors, wealth-managers and mutual-fund advisers, this resilient GST mop-up provides several insights:

• It signals that domestic consumption remains robust even as tax burdens are reduced, supporting the narrative of consumption-led growth.

• The sustained tax-revenue performance increases confidence in the fiscal and economic outlook, which indirectly supports investment sentiment.

• Sectors tied to consumer demand, festive spending and goods impacted by the tax cuts may be better positioned in the near term.

However, the moderation in growth rate and the shift in tax structure underline that execution and monitoring remain important — merely collecting more tax does not automatically guarantee higher growth or margin expansion for all segments.

Key Takeaways

• GST collections for October hit ₹1.96 lakh crore, up 4.6 % YoY.

• This rise came despite broad tax-rate cuts on 375+ items, thanks to strong festive demand and spending.

• Growth is slower compared to prior months, suggesting the tax-cut effect is beginning to surface, but the base of consumption remains solid.

• For investors and advisors, the data support India’s growth themes centred on domestic demand, but also flag the need for portfolio diversification and risk awareness.

  Source: MoneyControl

The Indian government is exploring a significant change in its foreign direct investment (FDI) policy by allowing overseas investment in the inventory-based model of e-commerce, specifically for goods manufactured or produced in India and exported abroad. This marks a potential shift from the current regime, which permits 100% FDI under automatic route only in the marketplace model of e-commerce.

What’s Changing and Why

Under existing rules, e-commerce entities that own and manage inventory (rather than merely acting as a platform connecting buyer and seller) are restricted from receiving foreign investment when operating domestically. The proposal under consideration would grant FDI approval for such inventory-based entities only for export purposes, thereby aligning policy with India’s push to boost cross-border e-commerce.

The move is aimed at increasing India’s global e-commerce export capabilities currently narrowly positioned compared to global peers and leveraging foreign capital and expertise to scale exports from Indian manufacturers and exporters. Estimates suggest India’s e-commerce export potential could reach USD 350 billion by 2030.

Implications for Industry, Investors and Advisors

For exporters, manufacturers and e-commerce businesses, this adjustment could open new avenues:

• Inventory-based e-commerce with foreign investment may enable larger scale operations, improved logistics, and global market reach.

• For investors and wealth managers, companies operating or positioned to leverage this change may gain a strategic edge especially those tied to exports, supply-chain optimisation and e-commerce infrastructure.

• Advisors should note the importance of understanding how regulatory changes can alter sector dynamics and corporate growth prospects, especially in export-oriented and platform-driven businesses.

At the same time, the policy is being designed to safeguard the interests of small and traditional retailers by limiting the change to exports only not domestic sales hereby maintaining balance in the ecosystem.

Strategic Considerations & Risk Factors

While the proposal is promising, a few caveats are worth monitoring:

• The change is at consultation stage, and final rules – such as eligibility, conditions, and implementation timelines are yet to be defined.

• Export-only allowance means companies must align closely with goods “manufactured or produced in India” and export channels domestic sales under the inventory model remain restricted.

• Infrastructure, regulatory clarity, logistics and overseas market access will still determine how impactful the change ultimately becomes.

For portfolio strategy, these factors suggest opportunity but with discipline. Long-term positions in export-enablement, e-commerce logistics, and digital export platforms may benefit, but valuation discipline and diversification remain key.

Source: The Economic Times

India’s fiscal position for the first half of FY26 (April–September) shows a mix of strong capital spending and moderated revenue growth. According to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), the fiscal deficit stood at ₹5.73 lakh crore, accounting for 36.5% of the full-year budget estimate. This performance reflects a cautious but steady approach toward fiscal management amid a challenging global environment.

Fiscal Performance Overview

The government’s total expenditure during April–September reached ₹22.4 lakh crore, or about 45.5% of the FY26 target, indicating consistent spending momentum. Within this, capital expenditure (capex) – a key driver of infrastructure and long-term growth – amounted to ₹5.4 lakh crore, or 51.8% of the annual target, underscoring the government’s continued focus on building productive assets.

On the revenue side, net tax revenue stood at ₹13.2 lakh crore, achieving roughly 41.2% of the full-year goal. While GST collections have remained robust, certain indirect tax reductions and subdued non-tax revenues have slightly moderated overall receipts.

Focus on Growth and Fiscal Stability

Despite the widening deficit, fiscal management remains on track to meet the government’s FY26 target of 5.1% of GDP. The rise in capital expenditure highlights the administration’s commitment to boosting economic growth through public investment, even as it maintains fiscal prudence.

Economists point out that higher spending on infrastructure, defence, and rural development could yield multiplier effects, supporting employment and private sector demand. However, a close watch will be needed on revenue buoyancy and fiscal consolidation, particularly in the second half of the financial year.

Broader Economic Implications

India’s sustained investment-led growth model continues to balance fiscal discipline with the need for expansion. The healthy pace of capital spending, combined with measures to enhance tax compliance and digital efficiency, is expected to reinforce the country’s growth momentum.

For investors and financial advisors, the government’s emphasis on capex-led growth provides positive signals for sectors like infrastructure, capital goods, engineering, and construction. At the same time, the cautious stance on revenue and expenditure alignment reflects a commitment to long-term macroeconomic stability.

Key Takeaways

• Fiscal deficit at ₹5.73 lakh crore (36.5% of FY26 target).

• Total expenditure reached 45.5% of the budgeted outlay; capex utilization at 51.8%.

• Net tax revenue achieved 41.2% of annual target amid moderated collections.

• The government remains focused on maintaining growth momentum and fiscal prudence.

The current data reaffirms India’s balanced approach fueling economic activity through strategic capital spending while staying on course toward fiscal consolidation.

Source: MoneyControl