India’s economy continues to show remarkable resilience amid global challenges. Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran has projected that the country’s GDP growth could approach 7% in FY26, supported by robust domestic demand, policy reforms, and fiscal discipline. Despite a complex international environment marked by trade tensions and protectionist measures, India’s growth story remains intact.

Resilience Amid Global Headwinds

The global economy has been grappling with persistent inflation, slowing trade flows, and tighter financial conditions. Yet, India has managed to maintain strong momentum thanks to its diverse economic base and proactive government measures.

• Structural reforms and targeted fiscal interventions have enhanced economic stability.

• Domestic consumption and investment continue to be major growth drivers.

• The country’s external sector remains buffered by healthy foreign exchange reserves and steady capital inflows.

According to Nageswaran, India’s policy framework—focusing on tax rationalisation, public infrastructure spending, and ease of doing business—has helped mitigate global shocks effectively.

Fiscal and Credit Dynamics

The Chief Economic Advisor also addressed concerns over private credit growth. While some analysts have flagged slower lending activity, Nageswaran noted that the overall resource mobilisation in the economy remains strong. Funding through non-bank lenders, corporate bonds, and equity markets continues to support investment expansion.

This broader financial ecosystem, he said, provides resilience against credit-cycle fluctuations and ensures that capital formation remains healthy.

Outlook for Investors and Market Participants

For investors and financial advisors, the near-7% growth projection reinforces India’s position as one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies. A stable macroeconomic environment, combined with sustained reforms, presents long-term opportunities across:

• Domestic consumption and retail sectors

• Manufacturing and infrastructure development

• Financial and digital services

However, investors are also advised to maintain a balanced approach, considering potential external shocks such as oil price volatility, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical developments.

Policy Continuity and Long-Term Focus

Looking ahead, India’s ability to sustain this growth momentum will depend on how effectively ongoing reforms are implemented. Continued fiscal prudence, improvement in the investment climate, and policy stability will be critical to achieving long-term targets.

Economists also suggest that while short-term data may fluctuate, India’s structural growth trajectory remains strong, driven by its expanding middle class, rapid digitalisation, and resilient financial system.

Source: The Economic Times

Business sentiment in India softened in the July-September quarter (Q2 FY26), ending a streak of improvement that lasted three consecutive quarters. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) dropped to 142.6 from 149.4 in the preceding quarter.

Despite remaining above the year-ago level of 134.3, the moderation reflects a shift in momentum. Firms cited a range of global headwinds — including additional tariffs from the United States — as well as domestic policy adjustments, such as recent GST rate rationalisations, that have weighed on their outlook.

Slowing Confidence & Mixed Outlook

The survey revealed that three of the four components underpinning the BCI  expectations of improved economic conditions, financial position, and investment climate  all eased in Q2. However, capacity utilisation remained high, with 98 % of firms reporting operations “at or above optimal levels.”

Large firms were noticeably more cautious than smaller ones: while the BCI for large companies fell to 149.9 from 171.6, sentiment among MSMEs increased slightly to 138 from 137 in the preceding quarter.

While output expectations remained positive 82% of firms expected production to rise vs 79% in Q1, and 73% expected exports to increase vs 67% in Q1 – a significant share of respondents anticipated only modest growth (44% expected output growth of 0-5%).

Implications for Investors and Advisors

For wealth-managers, mutual-fund distributors and financial advisors, the dip in business confidence warrants attention in several areas:

• The easing of sentiment suggests that while underlying capacity remains strong, growth expectations are becoming more cautious. Clients should avoid over-reliance on high-growth assumptions without acknowledging possible cyclicality.

• From a portfolio strategy perspective, sectors tied to global trade and export-intensive businesses might face greater uncertainty given the external pressures flagged by the survey.

• Advisors may consider increasing emphasis on domestic‐demand themes and businesses less vulnerable to global shocks. At the same time, maintaining diversification and risk-monitoring is crucial given the moderation in confidence.

Strategic Outlook

Although the drop in the BCI signals a slower growth trajectory, it does not indicate contraction sentiment remains above long-term averages. This suggests that India’s business environment remains robust but is becoming more introspective in its optimism.

Going forward, key variables to monitor include:

• How external trade policies and global tariff pressures evolve, especially since these were directly cited as dampeners.

• Whether domestic policy adjustments (such as tax or regulatory reforms) create transitional uncertainty affecting business investment plans.

• How sentiment translates into actual investment, hiring and production decisions. High capacity utilisation suggests latent potential, but without follow-through investment, growth may stall.

  Source: MoneyControl

India’s tax system is facing a growing bottleneck, with over ₹18 lakh crore stuck in unresolved appeals before the Commissioner of Income Tax (Appeals), according to a recent report by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI). The chamber has urged the Finance Ministry to take swift corrective measures ahead of the upcoming budget.

Mounting Backlog Poses a Risk to Ease of Doing Business

As of April 1, 2025, nearly 5.4 lakh cases remain pending at the CIT(A) level, making it one of the most pressing administrative challenges in India’s direct tax framework. The FICCI report notes that while the faceless appeal system introduced to improve transparency and reduce physical interface was a step in the right direction, it has not yet delivered on its promise due to operational and procedural bottlenecks.

Additionally, the vacancies across appellate offices are further adding to the delay, with many posts at the Commissioner (Appeals) level lying unfilled for months.

FICCI’s Recommendations for Reform

To address these systemic challenges, FICCI has outlined several key measures that could improve tax-dispute resolution efficiency:

• Fill vacant posts at appellate offices to speed up case disposal.

• Introduce differentiated tracks for low-value and high-value disputes to improve case management.

• Set strict timelines for appeals to prevent accumulation of pending cases.

• Simplify compliance frameworks, especially around TDS and digital submissions.

The chamber believes that implementing these reforms can significantly enhance taxpayer confidence and promote a smoother business environment.

Complex TDS Structure Adding to Compliance Burden

Another major pain point identified by FICCI is the complexity of the TDS (Tax Deducted at Source) regime, which currently involves over 37 distinct provisions with rates ranging from 0.1 % to 30 %.

This patchwork of rates and categories has led to:

• Frequent classification disputes between taxpayers and authorities,

• Cash-flow disruptions for businesses, and

• A rise in litigation due to inconsistent interpretations of tax obligations.

FICCI has therefore recommended simplifying the TDS framework by consolidating multiple provisions and reducing rate variability.

Industry Seeks Clarity on Corporate Restructuring

The report also highlights the lack of tax neutrality in fast-track demergers under the Companies Act 2013. Traditional demergers qualify for tax-neutral treatment, but fast-track ones do not — discouraging companies from using faster reorganisation routes.

Broader Implications for Investors and Businesses

The massive backlog of pending cases represents not just an administrative issue but also a financial and strategic concern for businesses and investors. Funds locked in disputes reduce liquidity, increase compliance risk, and affect company valuations.

For wealth managers and financial advisors, understanding the scale of this litigation is essential, as it can influence sectoral investment exposure and client portfolio risk assessments.

Key implications include:

• Slower resolution may affect cash flows for listed entities.

• Investors may need to track companies with large contingent tax liabilities.

• Potential reforms could create new opportunities in tax-compliant corporate governance sectors.

The Road Ahead: Restoring Trust Through Reform

While the government has taken steps to improve tax administration, FICCI emphasizes that the next phase of reforms must focus on speed, accountability, and simplicity. Filling key vacancies, modernizing digital infrastructure for faceless appeals, and ensuring clarity in tax provisions could restore business confidence and reduce litigation.

Experts believe that a transparent and time-bound appeal process will not only free up billions in locked capital but also improve India’s global standing in ease of doing business.

Source: MoneyControl

India’s Growth Outlook for FY26 Remains Strong

The Ministry of Finance has projected a robust economic outlook for FY2025–26, emphasizing that India’s growth momentum remains on a solid footing. The government’s September Economic Review highlights the combined impact of GST rate cuts, festive-season demand, and resilient domestic consumption as key growth drivers for the coming fiscal year.

Boost from GST Cuts and Festive Demand

Recent reductions in GST rates have provided a notable boost to consumer spending, especially in sectors like retail, automobiles, and household goods. This tax relief has improved disposable income across both urban and rural households, helping sustain momentum in private consumption.

In addition, the ongoing festive season has amplified demand across multiple categories — from travel and hospitality to consumer durables — further reinforcing the positive trend in economic activity. The Finance Ministry notes that this demand revival is translating into higher capacity utilization and encouraging businesses to expand investment.

Strong Domestic Drivers Support the Economy

Apart from consumption trends, several domestic macro factors are contributing to India’s steady growth. A normal monsoon and improved agricultural output are expected to stabilize food prices and support rural income. Meanwhile, moderate inflation, healthy credit expansion, and rising tax collections indicate a broad-based economic recovery.

The Ministry also pointed out encouraging signs from the export sector, even as global conditions remain uncertain. Despite additional duties imposed by the US, India’s diversified export markets have helped cushion external risks.

Policy Confidence and Economic Resilience

According to the Finance Ministry, India’s economy continues to display strong fundamentals backed by proactive fiscal management and targeted policy measures. The government’s efforts to simplify taxation, promote manufacturing, and support small businesses have strengthened the overall business climate.

These measures, along with a focus on infrastructure development and job creation, are expected to maintain steady GDP growth in FY26. Policymakers remain confident that India’s internal demand will offset any global headwinds.

Implications for Investors and Advisors

For financial advisors, mutual fund distributors, and investors, the government’s positive assessment of the economy offers several insights.

• Domestic consumption themes — such as FMCG, auto, housing, and infrastructure — are likely to remain attractive investment areas.

• Policy-driven growth and fiscal support create opportunities in sectors aligned with government priorities.

• However, investors should stay mindful of global uncertainties, interest-rate shifts, and inflation risks, which could impact market sentiment in the short term.

A balanced approach that combines India-focused growth exposure with diversified global allocations can help manage risks while capitalizing on domestic resilience.

Source: The Economic Times

India is preparing to launch a new GDP base year series (2022–23) that will more accurately represent the country’s evolving economic landscape — particularly the expansion of the digital economy, gig work, and platform-based services. Expected to roll out in early 2026, this update aims to align national accounts with the realities of a fast-changing, technology-driven economy.

Replacing the 2011–12 Base Year

The upcoming GDP series will replace the current 2011–12 base year and include a broader range of data sources such as GST records, e-way bills, digital transactions, and platform economy data. These additions will help capture growth in online marketplaces, fintech platforms, app-based services, and freelance employment, sectors that were previously underrepresented in India’s GDP calculations.

Recognising the Gig and Platform Economy

One of the most significant updates in the new framework is the formal inclusion of gig-economy and digital-platform activities. With millions of Indians now earning income through app-based logistics, mobility, delivery, and freelancing, this change will help quantify their contribution to productivity and overall GDP.
By doing so, policymakers will gain deeper insight into employment trends, income distribution, and productivity shifts within the new-age digital economy.

Implications for Investors and Financial Advisors

For investors, fund managers, and financial advisors, the updated GDP series will bring greater transparency and sectoral clarity. It will clearly identify which segments – including digital infrastructure, fintech, logistics, and online services – are driving growth. This visibility will help professionals align investment strategies with the emerging structural trends of India’s digital transformation.

Enhancing Global Data Credibility

Economists believe that the revised GDP methodology will enhance India’s credibility in international comparisons. As more economic activity becomes digitally traceable, macroeconomic indicators such as consumption, productivity, and employment will be measured with higher accuracy and timeliness, making India’s data more reflective of real-world economic dynamics.

Transition Challenges and Revisions Ahead

Experts caution that this transition could lead to short-term adjustments in the data. Once the new series is adopted, historical GDP growth figures may be revised, altering earlier comparisons.
For wealth managers and advisors, it will be crucial to help clients interpret GDP data in context – focusing on long-term structural trends rather than reacting to short-term fluctuations caused by statistical recalibrations.

Conclusion: A Step Toward a Data-Rich, Digital Future

The introduction of the 2022–23 GDP series marks a milestone in India’s economic reporting. By formally recognising the digital and gig economies, the revision will create a more comprehensive, data-rich, and globally aligned picture of India’s growth.
This move not only improves policymaking but also provides investors and market participants with sharper insights into the forces shaping India’s modern, technology-led economy.

Source: The Economic Times

India is ramping up reforms in its financial sector in response to significant foreign portfolio outflows, estimated at approximately US$17 billion so far this year.

Key Developments

• Foreign investors have net sold nearly US$17 billion in Indian equities, making India one of the worst-hit Asian markets for foreign-portfolio withdrawals this year.

• In response, regulators including Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) have initiated a batch of reforms aimed at opening up market access, easing regulatory bottlenecks and improving foreign investor participation.

  Specific measures under way or planned include:

  1. Simplification of listing and fundraising rules for companies.

  2. Easier access for overseas lenders and foreign-funds into India’s banking/financial system.

  3. Relaxation of borrowing norms for corporates and increased flexibility for banks to fund acquisitions.

  4. Additional regulatory easing across the estimated US$260 billion financial-services sector is under discussion, targeting implementation over the next 6–12 months.

Why This Matters for Investors & Wealth Managers

• For portfolio strategists and wealth-managers, the reform push signals that India is seeking to restore foreign investor confidence — an important macro lens for equity and fund allocations.

• Investors in sectors tied to capital markets, banking and financial services may recalibrate their exposure in light of improved regulatory access and potential inflows.

• For mutual fund distributors, this development can become part of the storyline when advising clients about India-centric growth themes and allocation adjustments.

Strategic Considerations & Risks

• While the reforms reflect positive intent, the foreign outflow figure is substantial and highlights how global tensions (e.g., trade tariffs) can impact portfolio flows into India.

• The success of the reforms will depend on execution, regulatory certainty and how fast improved access translates into actual foreign capital deployment.

  Investors need to monitor:

  The pace at which foreign-fund access is improved and effectively leveraged will play a critical role in shaping India’s investment landscape. Alongside this, changes in corporate governance standards or listing regulations introduced under the new reform framework could significantly influence investor confidence and market participation.

  On the domestic front, these developments may carry important macroeconomic implications  particularly in areas like currency stability and credit conditions – as fluctuations in capital flows can create both opportunities and short-term volatility within the financial system.

  Source: Economic Times

India’s growth outlook for the second half of the current financial year remains resilient, with strong domestic consumption expected to offset global headwinds. The latest report by SBI Capital Markets underscores that internal demand and increased public capital spending will help sustain economic momentum.

What the Report Highlights

• While external pressure remains high — including steep tariffs from the U.S. — India is relying more heavily on domestic growth levers, such as consumer demand and government investment.

• Both central and state governments have ramped up their capital expenditure in the year-to-date FY26, boosting gross fixed capital formation and providing tailwinds for growth.

• The timing of GST rate adjustments and the upcoming festive season are expected to trigger record-high retail sales, with estimates pointing towards a festive-season sales value of around ₹4.75 trillion.

• Credit-flow measures introduced by the Reserve Bank of India — including loosening of sectoral caps and higher lending against shares, REITs and InvITs  have lifted the credit-deposit ratio above 80% for the first time in FY26.

Why This Matters for Investors & Advisors

For wealth managers, mutual-fund distributors and financial advisors, the report’s findings carry relevant insights:

• The emphasis on domestic consumption suggests sustained opportunities in sectors such as consumer durables, retail, automobiles, FMCG and services.

• With exports and global trade under pressure, the focus shifts closer to the domestic market and infrastructure spending, offering portfolio themes tied to India’s internal demand story.

• Reduced reliance on external growth drivers means investment strategies can be adjusted to capitalize on India’s resilient internal engines, rather than being overly exposed to global cyclical risks.

Key Risks to Monitor

While the outlook is positive, certain risks remain that investors should keep in view:

• Global tariffs and supply-chain disruptions continue to challenge exporters and could feed into cost-pressures domestically.

• Inflation, rising input costs, or a sharp slowdown in credit growth could still dampen consumption momentum.

• Over-exposure to domestic-only themes without diversification could leave portfolios vulnerable if global conditions improve faster than expected.

Advisor Takeaways: Framing the Client Conversation

Wealth advisors should consider the following when guiding clients:

• Reinforce the idea that domestic consumption and infrastructure are the key growth engines in the near term.

• Discuss portfolio rebalancing towards sectors benefitting from internal demand strength, while maintaining diversification across geographies and styles.

• Highlight that even though export-linked and global-supply-chain themes face headwinds, India’s internal demand story provides a buffer, making India-centric equity exposure compelling.

• Remind clients that while macro trends are supportive, portfolio discipline, risk-management and adherence to client objectives remain essential.

  Source: The Economic Times

India’s mutual fund industry is witnessing a remarkable surge in investor interest toward sectoral and thematic funds, with defence, PSU, and manufacturing funds leading the pack. According to a recent Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund report, these themes have emerged as the top choices among equity investors in 2025 – reflecting confidence in policy-backed sectors and India’s long-term growth narrative.

Shifting Investor Trends

Over the past few quarters, investors have increasingly gravitated toward niche investment opportunities instead of broad-based equity exposure. The Franklin Templeton report highlights that sectoral and thematic funds have drawn the highest inflows within the equity category this year.

This shift underscores two key drivers:

• Government policy tailwinds, especially in sectors like defence production, PSU reforms, and manufacturing revival.

• Investor appetite for targeted growth themes, which align with India’s strategic development priorities.

Such patterns suggest that investors are becoming more selective and goal-oriented, looking to capitalize on sectors with strong earnings visibility and policy support.

Why It Matters for Investors and Advisors

For investors, the move toward thematic funds indicates a desire to capture specific growth stories rather than rely solely on broad indices.

For financial advisors and mutual fund distributors, this trend presents a strategic opportunity — and a responsibility — to guide clients through the nuances of thematic investing.

Key Insights for Advisors

• Portfolio positioning: These funds can enhance returns when used tactically within a diversified portfolio.

• Risk consideration: Sectoral funds tend to be more volatile due to their concentrated exposure.

• Client education: Advisors should highlight that thematic funds require a medium- to long-term horizon for optimal results.

Strategic Outlook

Looking ahead, experts expect continued momentum in sectors aligned with national priorities such as:

• Defence manufacturing and indigenisation under the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ initiative.

• PSU reforms and infrastructure investments, driving economic multiplier effects.

• Manufacturing and industrial growth, supported by the government’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes.

However, while inflows remain robust, advisors should remain cautious about valuation levels and concentration risks.

Balanced portfolio construction blending thematic exposure with core diversified holdings remains the best strategy to capture upside while managing risk.

Source: The Financial Express

A recent government-economic report highlights that India’s economy remains well placed for FY26, buoyed by strong domestic demand, moderating inflation and supportive tax and policy measures. The findings reflect a healthier macro-environment despite global headwinds.

Positive Macroeconomic Trends
The report emphasises the following strengths:

• Inflation is expected to remain soft this year, helped by a favourable agricultural and food-production outlook, despite some weather-related crop setbacks.

• Domestic consumption and services demand continue to gain momentum, supporting growth even as exports face headwinds.

• Early signs of export diversification are visible, as India begins to shift away from reliance on a few markets and explores new destinations.

• The report notes that tax-rate adjustments and policy measures aim to stimulate consumption and investment, reinforcing internal growth forces.

What This Means for Investors and Wealth Managers

For wealth advisors, mutual-fund distributors and investors, these developments translate into actionable insights:

• Sectors driven by domestic demand – such as retail, consumer durables, housing, services and infrastructure may benefit notably in the near term.

• The moderation in inflation supports a more favourable real return environment, making equity and hybrid-fund exposure more attractive for clients focused on growth.

• Given export pressures and global uncertainties, a portfolio tilt toward India-centric growth (less dependent on global trade) may help in risk-adjusted positioning.

Key Risks to Monitor

While the outlook is positive, prudent advisors should keep an eye on:

• Global trade and tariff risks: External shock or stronger global protectionism could impact export-demand and industry margins.

• Input cost inflation: Even with overall inflation easing, sudden spikes in commodity or energy prices could compress margins and consumer spending.

• Credit or investment slow-down: A fallback in credit growth or government cap-ex could weaken the domestic demand engine.

Strategic Portfolio Implications

Advisors are recommended to:

• Increase focus on themes driven by internal consumption and services growth, while retaining global diversification to hedge external risk.

• Position clients with medium- to long-term horizons into sectors aligned with India’s domestic demand trajectory, but ensure portfolio balance to manage cyclical risk.

• Use this macro backdrop to reinforce client conviction in India-focused strategies, but maintain discipline about valuations, time-horizons and risk-monitoring.

  Source: The Financial Express

India’s Growth Outlook Brightens: IMF Projects 6.6% Expansion for FY2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised India’s growth forecast upward to 6.6% for FY2025-26, reaffirming the country’s position as the fastest-growing major economy. Despite ongoing global trade challenges and tariff tensions, India continues to show strong domestic resilience, outperforming peers such as China, whose growth is estimated at 4.8%.

Strong Domestic Demand Drives Upward Revision

India’s economic expansion is being fuelled by a solid foundation of domestic consumption, robust manufacturing activity, and rising private investment.
The IMF highlighted that the “carry-over momentum” from the first quarter of FY2026 has created a strong base for the year ahead.

This upward revision comes even as many economies face slower growth due to inflationary pressures, protectionist trade policies, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Tariffs and Trade Pressures Have Limited Impact

While global tariff policies and supply-chain disruptions have constrained several emerging markets, India’s economy has remained largely insulated from external shocks.
This resilience is credited to diversified trade partnerships, healthy export performance in select sectors, and continued government emphasis on self-reliance through initiatives such as “Make in India” and “Atmanirbhar Bharat.”

Implications for Investors and Financial Advisors

For the investment community, the IMF’s upgraded outlook reinforces the potential of India-focused equity and mutual fund portfolios.
Wealth managers and financial distributors can view this as an opportunity to realign client portfolios toward domestic-growth themes, particularly in:

• Consumer demand and retail segments

• Infrastructure and capital goods

• Financial services and digital transformation

• Export-driven manufacturing and logistics

The forecast also signals stronger corporate earnings potential, supporting long-term wealth-creation prospects through equity exposure.

Key Risks to Monitor

Despite the optimism, investors should remain aware of certain global headwinds:

• Persistent inflation and tightening monetary policies in developed markets

• Potential volatility in global commodity prices

• Trade-policy adjustments and tariff-related uncertainties

Maintaining diversified exposure across asset classes and geographies remains essential to balance growth and risk.

Strategic Perspective for 2025–26

India’s growth trajectory remains robust, supported by government infrastructure spending, expanding credit availability, and strong domestic savings.
The IMF’s revision to 6.6% demonstrates growing confidence in India’s economic fundamentals, even in a challenging global environment.

For wealth managers and advisors, this environment presents a clear message — focus on long-term growth sectors that align with India’s expanding middle class, industrial capacity, and global trade integration.

Source: MoneyControl