India’s economic growth may fall short of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) projection for FY26, according to the latest SBI Research Report. The report estimates GDP growth at 6.3% for 2025-26, slightly lower than the RBI’s forecast of 6.5%.

Q1 GDP Growth Seen at 6.8–7%

SBI Research expects first-quarter GDP growth between 6.8–7%, supported by resilient macroeconomic fundamentals. However, the pace of expansion is likely to moderate in subsequent quarters due to muted private capital expenditure (capex).

• Q2 FY26: 6.5%

• Q3 FY26: 6.3%

• Q4 FY26: 6.1% (lowest for the year)

In comparison, the RBI projects Q1 growth at 6.5%, Q2 at 6.7%, Q3 at 6.6%, and Q4 at 6.3%.

Key Concerns: Weak Private Capex & US Tariffs

The report highlights that private sector investments remain subdued, based on a survey of 2,170 enterprises across agriculture, manufacturing, IT, and other sectors.

• Capex intentions for FY26 are significantly lower than FY25.

• US tariffs on Indian exports may further dampen investment sentiment and earnings.

• Sectors at risk include textiles, gems & jewellery, leather, chemicals, agriculture, and auto components.

Public Capex as Growth Driver

On a positive note, SBI Research underlines that public capital expenditure remains a persistent and structural driver of growth. Government spending on infrastructure and development is expected to provide stability and cushion against global headwinds.

Banking Sector Trends: Credit Growth Slows, SME Loans Surge

India’s banking sector showed slower credit growth, slipping to 10% as of July 25, 2025, compared to 13.7% a year ago.

• Aggregate deposits grew 10.2% YoY.

• Credit growth weakened across most sectors except SMEs, where lending surged 21.8% YoY (up from 14.2% last year).

Outlook for FY26

India’s economy is expected to expand in the range of 6.3–6.8% in FY26, lower than the strong post-pandemic rebound of 9.2% seen in 2023-24. The SBI report concludes that while macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong, sustaining growth will require:

• Strategic policy management

• Boosting private investment

• Managing risks from global trade tensions

The mutual fund industry witnessed robust growth in new Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) registrations during the quarter ended June 2025, with 1.67 crore SIP accounts added—a significant rise from 1.41 crore in the previous quarter. This surge highlights strong retail investor participation despite ongoing market volatility.

Groww emerged as the clear market leader, adding over 41.9 lakh new SIPs during the quarter and commanding a 25% market share. In June alone, Groww registered a record 15.7 lakh new SIPs, the highest monthly addition by any distributor in the segment. Value-wise, new SIPs on Groww’s platform during the quarter stood at ₹1,116 crore, reflecting a sharp 32% growth over the previous quarter.

Angel One secured the second position, contributing around 15 lakh new SIP registrations in the same period. Traditional distributors also performed well—NJ IndiaInvest added 5.9 lakh SIPs, while SBI and HDFC Securities recorded 4.3 lakh and 3.8 lakh new SIPs, respectively. Digital-first platform PhonePe contributed nearly 5.9 lakh SIPs, largely from lower-ticket investments.

SIP Inflows Hit Record Highs Amid Market Volatility

Despite the benchmark Nifty 50 delivering mid-single-digit returns year-to-date, retail investor interest in mutual funds remains resilient. Total SIP inflows hit a record ₹27,269 crore in June 2025, continuing a steady month-on-month increase. Meanwhile, SIP Assets Under Management (AUM) surged to ₹15.3 lakh crore as of June 30, 2025, up from ₹12.4 lakh crore a year ago.

Growing Investor Base and Rising AUM Reflect Shifting Investment Trends

The number of unique mutual fund investors in India climbed to 5.4 crore in 2025, marking a 20% increase from 4.5 crore in 2024 and a 42% jump from 3.8 crore in 2023. The industry’s total AUM reached a record ₹74.4 lakh crore in June 2025, an 18% rise from ₹63.2 lakh crore in the previous quarter.

What’s Driving This Growth?

Experts attribute this growth to a shift in investor mindset—retail investors are increasingly viewing mutual funds as a reliable tool for long-term wealth creation, moving away from traditional savings. The rise of digital-first platforms has enhanced accessibility and convenience, enabling more investors to participate systematically.

Additionally, investor education and awareness programs by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) and various asset management companies have played a pivotal role in encouraging disciplined investing and boosting confidence in mutual funds.

Source: Moneycontrol

Oil prices are rising sharply amid fresh geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude forecasted to surge past $80 per barrel by the end of 2025. The recent warning issued by former U.S. President Donald Trump to Russia over its Ukraine offensive has rattled global energy markets, stoking fears of a supply shock and fresh economic sanctions.

Brent Crude Price Forecast: $80–$82 by Year-End

According to N.S. Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, Brent crude (October 2025 contract) has already climbed from $72.07 to nearly $76, and is showing strong upside momentum.

“If current momentum continues, Brent is likely to trade between $80 and $82 per barrel by December,” said Ramaswamy. “Sanctions on nations trading with Russia could disrupt global oil flows significantly.”

Brent crude’s immediate support level is pegged at $69, suggesting limited downside unless geopolitical tensions ease dramatically.

Trump’s Ultimatum to Russia: A Major Price Trigger

Driving the latest surge is a 12-day ultimatum from Donald Trump to Russia, demanding a halt to its military actions in Ukraine. The former president has threatened secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries that continue oil trade with Moscow—potentially triggering a massive disruption in the global crude oil supply chain.

Russia’s Role in the Global Oil Market

Russia remains a key global supplier, exporting nearly 5 million barrels of oil per day. Cutting off this supply could send oil prices soaring.

“If Russian oil is removed from the global system, we’re looking at Brent potentially spiking to $100–$120 per barrel, if not higher,” said energy expert Narendra Taneja.

Impact on India: Cost Pressures Ahead

India may not face an immediate supply shortage due to its diversified import basket—sourcing crude from over 40 countries. However, experts warn that managing retail fuel prices could become extremely challenging.

“India’s supply may be secure, but the bigger issue will be maintaining consumer fuel prices amidst global volatility,” Taneja added.

WTI Crude Also Poised for Gains

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is also mirroring Brent’s trajectory. Currently trading at $69.65, WTI is expected to hit $73 in the short term and reach $76–$79 by year-end, with downside support around $65.

Why the Global Oil Market Faces a Supply Shock

The global oil market is already tight, with limited spare production capacity. Any sudden exit of Russian supply could create a sharp deficit. While OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia may step in to boost production, logistical constraints could delay response times—intensifying short-term price pressures.

Despite Trump’s political interest in lower oil prices, analysts believe the U.S. cannot ramp up production fast enough to stabilise markets quickly.

Other Market Drivers: Fed Rates & US Inventories

Investors are also closely tracking:

• US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions

• Weekly oil inventory data

These factors influence crude oil futures, and a stronger US dollar has provided temporary relief. However, geopolitical risks now outweigh macroeconomic factors.

Trade Agreements Offer Stability—But Not Security

While recent agreements like the US-EU trade deal and the extended US-China truce have brought some stability to global trade, they offer limited protection against supply-side oil shocks.

If Russian exports are halted and OPEC+ does not respond swiftly, analysts warn of a global oil crisis, with prices potentially well above $100 per barrel.

Source: Moneycontrol

Indian pharmaceuticals, IT, and service exporters poised to benefit; UK firms may face entry barriers in Indian market

In a landmark development, the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed on July 24 has opened up new opportunities in government procurement, marking a first-of-its-kind bilateral arrangement for India. This deal, part of the broader Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), allows mutual access to public procurement markets—a move expected to significantly boost trade and investment between the two nations.

Indian Firms Gain Access to $122 Billion UK Procurement Market

The agreement grants Indian companies access to the UK’s $122 billion public procurement market, including lucrative opportunities with the UK’s National Health Service (NHS). In return, UK firms will be eligible to bid in India’s $114 billion government procurement space, though with certain thresholds and strategic sector exclusions.

Under the agreement:

• Indian companies can bid for UK government contracts starting from ₹1.6 crore

• UK companies can bid for Indian contracts starting from ₹5.5 crore

NHS Procurement Opens Doors for Indian Pharma Industry

A standout feature of the deal is the inclusion of the NHS in the UK’s list of procuring entities. This move is expected to benefit Indian pharmaceutical exporters, especially those producing APIs and high-end generics.

“There is a significant boost expected in the UK’s NHS procurement of Indian API and high-end generics, which currently constitute 25% of prescription drugs,” said the Ministry of Commerce in a press release on July 25.

In addition to pharmaceuticals, sectors such as software services, technical textiles, and office equipment are likely to see increased traction due to India’s comparative advantage in quality service delivery.

“If Indian firms meet the quality standards, they are likely to benefit from this opening—especially in services,” noted Agneshwar Sen, Trade Policy Leader at EY.

UK Firms May Struggle in India Due to Procurement Norms

Despite the reciprocal access, UK companies may face challenges in India’s procurement landscape, particularly due to the L1 bidding system, which prioritizes the lowest-cost bid over other factors.

“UK firms may find it challenging to enter the Indian market under the L1 system, even with the relaxed rules,” said Sen.

While India has classified UK firms with at least 20% local content as Class-II suppliers—placing them on par with Indian vendors—price sensitivity and structural hurdles may still limit their competitiveness.

Sensitive and Strategic Sectors Remain Excluded

Both countries have exercised caution by excluding key strategic sectors from the agreement:

India’s exclusions include:

• Indian Railways

• Food Corporation of India

• Handloom Sector

• National Industrial Corridor Development Corporation

• Defence and ammunition

• MSME-specific procurement

• Agriculture and food programs

UK’s exclusions include:

• UK Space Agency

• Defence and national security

• Agricultural products

• Transport and postal services

• Drinking water and energy sectors

A Strategic Win with Guardrails

The India-UK trade pact marks a major stride in liberalizing public procurement markets, potentially unlocking billions in trade value. While Indian exporters—particularly in pharma and IT—stand to benefit significantly, UK firms may face uphill challenges in penetrating India’s complex procurement ecosystem.

Nonetheless, the deal highlights a growing strategic and economic partnership, rooted in mutual benefit while maintaining safeguards for sensitive sectors on both sides.

Source: Moneycontrol

Specialised Investment Funds (SIFs) are emerging as India’s next big innovation in investing bridging the gap between mutual funds and portfolio management services, and opening new doors for high-net-worth and market-savvy retail investors.

Sometimes, the most significant revolutions in finance don’t grab headlines. Yet they quietly transform how capital flows and wealth is built. India’s investment ecosystem is witnessing such a shift. At the heart of this change lies the rise of SIFs—Specialised Investment Funds—that offer a powerful blend of flexibility, thematic focus, and professional management.

What Are SIFs?

SIFs are a new category of investment vehicles introduced under SEBI’s regulatory innovation framework. They aim to offer the flexibility and concentration benefits of Portfolio Management Services (PMS) while retaining the accessibility and regulatory discipline of mutual funds. Think PMS-style agility with mutual fund-level transparency.

Broadly, the SIF universe includes two distinct components. First are the SEBI-registered SIFs, designed for sophisticated strategy deployment. Second are Social Impact Funds, a sub-category under Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) Category I, which seek to generate both financial returns and measurable social impact across sectors such as clean energy, rural fintech, and education.

What Makes SIFs Unique?

SIFs allow fund managers significantly more room to manoeuvre than traditional mutual funds. For example, while mutual funds are restricted to investing a maximum of 10% in a single stock, SIFs can allocate up to 15%, allowing for higher conviction bets. They also enable the use of derivatives, long-short strategies, and exposure to niche, emerging themes such as artificial intelligence, defence technology, and green energy clusters.

Unlike traditional SIP-friendly mutual funds that follow a more passive or benchmark-driven approach, SIFs are built for alpha outperformance over the benchmark. They are especially appealing to high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) and experienced retail investors looking to diversify their portfolios beyond conventional options.

Benefits of SIFs for Investors

SIFs offer multiple advantages for sophisticated investors:

• Tactical flexibility: Fund managers can implement complex and concentrated strategies with fewer restrictions.

• Higher return potential: For those with a higher risk appetite, SIFs present an opportunity to generate superior returns in specialized sectors.

• Thematic and niche exposure: Investors can access underrepresented themes that are typically unavailable in traditional mutual fund structures.

• Impact investing options: Through Social Impact Funds, investors can align their portfolios with their values—focusing on both profit and purpose.

Risks and Considerations

While SIFs offer compelling opportunities, they come with elevated risks. These funds tend to have a higher beta—meaning they can be more volatile than the broader market—due to concentrated bets, derivative strategies, and sector-specific themes. Liquidity can also be a concern, especially if the fund imposes lock-in periods or invests in illiquid instruments.

Moreover, because SIFs are designed for higher alpha, it’s crucial to assess them using risk-adjusted return metrics such as the Sharpe ratio, which measures the return earned per unit of risk. Investors should also pay close attention to the fund’s strategy, transparency, and alignment with their own investment horizon and risk tolerance.

Are SIFs Accessible to Retail Investors?

Historically, SIFs were accessible only to institutions and HNIs, primarily due to high minimum investment thresholds—often starting at ₹10 lakh or more. However, SEBI is gradually working toward democratising access. For instance, the introduction of Zero Coupon, Zero Principal (ZCZP) instruments on social stock exchanges is allowing retail investors to participate in impact-oriented funds with lower entry barriers.

As AMCs explore retail-compatible SIF formats and SEBI continues refining the regulatory structure, broader accessibility could soon become a reality.

Who’s Active in the Market?

The SIF space in India is rapidly gaining traction. For example, Edelweiss Mutual Fund has launched its Altiva SIF platform, which will follow a hybrid long-short strategy. The fund is currently awaiting SEBI approval. Meanwhile, major players like HDFC AMC, ICICI Prudential, and Nippon India are exploring thematic and long-short strategies under the SIF banner.

In the impact investment space, firms such as Aavishkaar, Omnivore, and Elevar Equity are driving innovation through social impact funds. They focus on sectors like affordable healthcare, clean drinking water, rural finance, and more.

Additionally, venture capital funds like Sequoia India, Accel, and Blume Ventures are backing early-stage technology and social startups. On the private equity side, firms such as KKR, Carlyle, and Blackstone are investing in mature, unlisted companies across India’s growth sectors.

Final Thoughts: Are SIFs the Future of Investing in India?

India’s financial markets are evolving rapidly, and so are the preferences of its investors. SEBI’s efforts to blend innovation with strong regulatory oversight are allowing next-generation financial products like SIFs to emerge and thrive.

SIFs are not for everyone. They require thoughtful risk assessment, a clear understanding of fund strategies, and a longer-term investment view. But for those who seek diversification, higher returns, or impact-aligned investing, SIFs represent a bold, intelligent way forward.

Whether you’re aiming to outperform the market or make a difference with your capital, SIFs could be the next major building block in your investment journey.

Source: Moneycontrol

SEBI’s latest consultation paper introduces sweeping changes across equity, debt, hybrid, and solution-oriented mutual fund schemes aimed at rationalising offerings and enhancing transparency.

In a significant move set to reshape the mutual fund landscape, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has proposed a comprehensive review of scheme categorisation and portfolio rationalisation for mutual funds.

The proposed changes aim to:

• Eliminate portfolio overlaps between similar schemes,

• Introduce clearer nomenclature,

• Enable innovative fund structures, and

• Ensure investors receive products aligned with their financial goals and risk profiles.

SEBI has opened the consultation for public feedback until August 8, 2025.

Key Proposals at a Glance

Equity Funds: Reducing Overlap, Increasing Differentiation

• Value and Contra Funds can coexist only if portfolio overlap is ≤ 50%.

• Overlap monitoring will occur:

  • At the time of New Fund Offer (NFO), and

  • On a semi-annual basis using month-end portfolios.

• Portfolio breach?

  • AMC must rebalance in 30 business days, with a one-time extension of 30 days.

  • If overlap persists, exit option without load must be provided to investors.

Sectoral & Thematic Funds:

• No more than 50% overlap with other equity schemes (excluding large-cap).

• Compliance required within one year for existing schemes.

Residual Allocation Flexibility:

Equity schemes can invest in:

• Debt and money market instruments

• Gold & silver (as per SEBI rules)

• REITs & InvITs
  Subject to prescribed asset-class limits.

Debt Funds: Better Names, Better Understanding

• ‘Duration’ to be replaced with ‘Term’ in fund names for clarity.

• Low Duration Fund → Ultra Short to Short Term Fund

• Scheme names to specify the duration explicitly, e.g.:

  • Overnight Fund (1 Day)

  • Medium Term Fund (3–4 Years)

Sectoral Debt Funds:

• Allowed if overlap ≤ 60% with other debt schemes.

• Adequate supply of investment-grade papers required.

• Exempted from sectoral exposure limits under Clause 12.9.1.

Residual Allocation:

• Can include REITs & InvITs, except in:

  • Overnight, Liquid, Ultra-Short, Low Duration, and Money Market Funds

Hybrid Funds: Refined Structure and Exposure Limits

• Arbitrage Funds can invest only in:

  • Government securities (maturity < 1 year)

  • Repos backed by government securities

• Equity Savings Schemes must maintain:

  • 15% to 40% in net equity and arbitrage exposure

• Residual investments in REITs & InvITs allowed for hybrid schemes
  (except Dynamic Asset Allocation & Arbitrage Funds)

Solution-Oriented Funds: Goal-Based Investing Gets a Boost

SEBI plans to allow:

• Life Cycle Fund of Funds (FoFs) for specific goals:

  • Housing, marriage, children’s education, etc.

• Lock-in periods: 3 / 5 / 10 years with clear rationale

• Target-date FoFs investing in a pre-defined structure

FoFs can invest in:

• Most hybrid schemes (excluding Aggressive Hybrid, Dynamic Asset Allocation, Multi-Asset Allocation)

• Most debt schemes, except All Seasons Bond Fund

Launching Additional Schemes: Stricter Criteria

Asset Management Companies (AMCs) may launch additional schemes in existing categories if:

• Existing scheme is 5+ years old

• Has an AUM > ₹50,000 crore

• Similar investment objective, strategy & asset allocation

Conditions include:

• New scheme must have a separate Scheme Information Document (SID)

• Same naming convention (e.g., Large Cap Fund – Series I & II)

• AMC may assign a separate fund manager

• New scheme must match TER (Total Expense Ratio) of the existing one on the date of NFO

If the existing scheme sees a significant AUM decline, AMC may:

• Merge it with the new scheme

• Ensure no more than two schemes exist in a category at any time

What This Means for Investors

• Clarity in scheme differentiation

• Better portfolio diversification

• Less duplication across fund houses

• More innovative, goal-oriented investment options

These changes are expected to streamline the mutual fund universe and empower investors to make better-informed decisions.

Source: The Economic Times

SIP AUM grows by over ₹5 trillion in just 17 months, reflecting rising retail investor confidence and market recovery.

India’s Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) assets under management (AUM) crossed a major milestone of ₹15 trillion in June 2025, marking the fastest ₹5 trillion jump in the history of mutual funds. According to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), SIP AUM grew by over 24% since February 2025, rising from ₹12.38 trillion to ₹15.30 trillion.

This sharp surge underscores resilient investor participation, even amid global and domestic market volatility.

SIP AUM Growth Journey: A Timeline of Milestones

• 2016: SIP AUM crosses the first ₹1 trillion

• July 2021: Reaches ₹5 trillion (took 5+ years)

• January 2024: Touches ₹10 trillion (in 31 months)

• June 2025: Crosses ₹15 trillion (in just 17 months)

This acceleration shows that retail investors are increasingly embracing SIP investing for long-term wealth creation, even during turbulent markets.

SIP Share in Mutual Fund Industry at All-Time High

With this milestone, the SIP AUM now accounts for 20.57% of the total mutual fund industry AUM — the highest ever. Over the past year, SIPs have maintained a strong position, consistently contributing close to 20% of total mutual fund assets.

Union Budget 2025 Boosts SIP Momentum

The 2025 Union Budget played a key role in strengthening retail SIP flows. Key tax relief measures, including:

• Enhanced standard deduction

• Revised tax slabs

• Increased disposable income

These reforms have empowered salaried and middle-income investors to allocate more capital toward disciplined monthly investments via SIPs.

Record SIP Inflows in June 2025

• SIP inflows hit a record ₹27,269 crore in June

  • Up from ₹26,688 crore in May

  • Slightly above ₹26,632 crore in April

• Net equity mutual fund inflows surged to ₹23,568 crore, a 24% increase over May

These figures indicate sustained retail investor confidence, driven by better liquidity, improved earnings outlook, and positive equity sentiment.

Market Recovery Fuels Investor Optimism

Indian equity markets have made a strong comeback since mid-March, following a steep correction that began in October 2024.

• Sensex and Nifty: Up 13%

• BSE MidCap: Up 18.5%

• BSE SmallCap: Up 23%

These rebounds have encouraged both new and existing investors to continue SIPs or increase contribution amounts, leveraging the cost-averaging benefits.

“SIPs offer a disciplined approach by averaging investment costs over time. They allow investors to buy more units when prices fall, making them ideal during volatility,” said Ajay Garg, CEO of SMC Global Securities.

Experts See Structural Strength in SIP Investing

According to Nikunj Saraf, Vice President at Choice Wealth, a combination of factors is driving consistent SIP momentum:

• Reduced redemptions

• Strategic diversification

• Strong market fundamentals

• Rising retail financial literacy

“This reflects deepening trust in mutual funds and a structural commitment to long-term equity investing,” he said.

Outlook: SIPs Set to Drive Long-Term Wealth Creation

With improving investor confidence, strong market fundamentals, and favourable policy support, SIPs are expected to remain a core investment vehicle for millions of Indian households. The trend signals a maturing investor base, one that values consistency, compounding, and financial discipline over short-term market noise.

Source: MoneyControl