India’s economic growth may fall short of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) projection for FY26, according to the latest SBI Research Report. The report estimates GDP growth at 6.3% for 2025-26, slightly lower than the RBI’s forecast of 6.5%.

Q1 GDP Growth Seen at 6.8–7%

SBI Research expects first-quarter GDP growth between 6.8–7%, supported by resilient macroeconomic fundamentals. However, the pace of expansion is likely to moderate in subsequent quarters due to muted private capital expenditure (capex).

• Q2 FY26: 6.5%

• Q3 FY26: 6.3%

• Q4 FY26: 6.1% (lowest for the year)

In comparison, the RBI projects Q1 growth at 6.5%, Q2 at 6.7%, Q3 at 6.6%, and Q4 at 6.3%.

Key Concerns: Weak Private Capex & US Tariffs

The report highlights that private sector investments remain subdued, based on a survey of 2,170 enterprises across agriculture, manufacturing, IT, and other sectors.

• Capex intentions for FY26 are significantly lower than FY25.

• US tariffs on Indian exports may further dampen investment sentiment and earnings.

• Sectors at risk include textiles, gems & jewellery, leather, chemicals, agriculture, and auto components.

Public Capex as Growth Driver

On a positive note, SBI Research underlines that public capital expenditure remains a persistent and structural driver of growth. Government spending on infrastructure and development is expected to provide stability and cushion against global headwinds.

Banking Sector Trends: Credit Growth Slows, SME Loans Surge

India’s banking sector showed slower credit growth, slipping to 10% as of July 25, 2025, compared to 13.7% a year ago.

• Aggregate deposits grew 10.2% YoY.

• Credit growth weakened across most sectors except SMEs, where lending surged 21.8% YoY (up from 14.2% last year).

Outlook for FY26

India’s economy is expected to expand in the range of 6.3–6.8% in FY26, lower than the strong post-pandemic rebound of 9.2% seen in 2023-24. The SBI report concludes that while macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong, sustaining growth will require:

• Strategic policy management

• Boosting private investment

• Managing risks from global trade tensions

The mutual fund industry witnessed robust growth in new Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) registrations during the quarter ended June 2025, with 1.67 crore SIP accounts added—a significant rise from 1.41 crore in the previous quarter. This surge highlights strong retail investor participation despite ongoing market volatility.

Groww emerged as the clear market leader, adding over 41.9 lakh new SIPs during the quarter and commanding a 25% market share. In June alone, Groww registered a record 15.7 lakh new SIPs, the highest monthly addition by any distributor in the segment. Value-wise, new SIPs on Groww’s platform during the quarter stood at ₹1,116 crore, reflecting a sharp 32% growth over the previous quarter.

Angel One secured the second position, contributing around 15 lakh new SIP registrations in the same period. Traditional distributors also performed well—NJ IndiaInvest added 5.9 lakh SIPs, while SBI and HDFC Securities recorded 4.3 lakh and 3.8 lakh new SIPs, respectively. Digital-first platform PhonePe contributed nearly 5.9 lakh SIPs, largely from lower-ticket investments.

SIP Inflows Hit Record Highs Amid Market Volatility

Despite the benchmark Nifty 50 delivering mid-single-digit returns year-to-date, retail investor interest in mutual funds remains resilient. Total SIP inflows hit a record ₹27,269 crore in June 2025, continuing a steady month-on-month increase. Meanwhile, SIP Assets Under Management (AUM) surged to ₹15.3 lakh crore as of June 30, 2025, up from ₹12.4 lakh crore a year ago.

Growing Investor Base and Rising AUM Reflect Shifting Investment Trends

The number of unique mutual fund investors in India climbed to 5.4 crore in 2025, marking a 20% increase from 4.5 crore in 2024 and a 42% jump from 3.8 crore in 2023. The industry’s total AUM reached a record ₹74.4 lakh crore in June 2025, an 18% rise from ₹63.2 lakh crore in the previous quarter.

What’s Driving This Growth?

Experts attribute this growth to a shift in investor mindset—retail investors are increasingly viewing mutual funds as a reliable tool for long-term wealth creation, moving away from traditional savings. The rise of digital-first platforms has enhanced accessibility and convenience, enabling more investors to participate systematically.

Additionally, investor education and awareness programs by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) and various asset management companies have played a pivotal role in encouraging disciplined investing and boosting confidence in mutual funds.

Source: Moneycontrol

Oil prices are rising sharply amid fresh geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude forecasted to surge past $80 per barrel by the end of 2025. The recent warning issued by former U.S. President Donald Trump to Russia over its Ukraine offensive has rattled global energy markets, stoking fears of a supply shock and fresh economic sanctions.

Brent Crude Price Forecast: $80–$82 by Year-End

According to N.S. Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, Brent crude (October 2025 contract) has already climbed from $72.07 to nearly $76, and is showing strong upside momentum.

“If current momentum continues, Brent is likely to trade between $80 and $82 per barrel by December,” said Ramaswamy. “Sanctions on nations trading with Russia could disrupt global oil flows significantly.”

Brent crude’s immediate support level is pegged at $69, suggesting limited downside unless geopolitical tensions ease dramatically.

Trump’s Ultimatum to Russia: A Major Price Trigger

Driving the latest surge is a 12-day ultimatum from Donald Trump to Russia, demanding a halt to its military actions in Ukraine. The former president has threatened secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries that continue oil trade with Moscow—potentially triggering a massive disruption in the global crude oil supply chain.

Russia’s Role in the Global Oil Market

Russia remains a key global supplier, exporting nearly 5 million barrels of oil per day. Cutting off this supply could send oil prices soaring.

“If Russian oil is removed from the global system, we’re looking at Brent potentially spiking to $100–$120 per barrel, if not higher,” said energy expert Narendra Taneja.

Impact on India: Cost Pressures Ahead

India may not face an immediate supply shortage due to its diversified import basket—sourcing crude from over 40 countries. However, experts warn that managing retail fuel prices could become extremely challenging.

“India’s supply may be secure, but the bigger issue will be maintaining consumer fuel prices amidst global volatility,” Taneja added.

WTI Crude Also Poised for Gains

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is also mirroring Brent’s trajectory. Currently trading at $69.65, WTI is expected to hit $73 in the short term and reach $76–$79 by year-end, with downside support around $65.

Why the Global Oil Market Faces a Supply Shock

The global oil market is already tight, with limited spare production capacity. Any sudden exit of Russian supply could create a sharp deficit. While OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia may step in to boost production, logistical constraints could delay response times—intensifying short-term price pressures.

Despite Trump’s political interest in lower oil prices, analysts believe the U.S. cannot ramp up production fast enough to stabilise markets quickly.

Other Market Drivers: Fed Rates & US Inventories

Investors are also closely tracking:

• US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions

• Weekly oil inventory data

These factors influence crude oil futures, and a stronger US dollar has provided temporary relief. However, geopolitical risks now outweigh macroeconomic factors.

Trade Agreements Offer Stability—But Not Security

While recent agreements like the US-EU trade deal and the extended US-China truce have brought some stability to global trade, they offer limited protection against supply-side oil shocks.

If Russian exports are halted and OPEC+ does not respond swiftly, analysts warn of a global oil crisis, with prices potentially well above $100 per barrel.

Source: Moneycontrol