India’s steel imports are expected to drop by 50% in FY26 compared to the previous year, thanks to the recently imposed safeguard duty, according to Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik. In an interview with CNBC-TV18 on June 17, he stated that import levels in April and May 2025 were already significantly lower than the same period last year.
The 12% provisional safeguard duty, which came into effect on April 21 for 200 days, aims to protect domestic manufacturers from a surge in cheap steel imports, especially from China. The duty applies specifically to flat-rolled products of non-alloy and certain alloy steels.
DGTR Final Recommendation Expected by August
The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) is currently investigating the matter and will give its final recommendation by August 2025. Secretary Poundrik clarified that no decision has been taken yet on increasing the duty beyond the current 12%.
“As of now, I would not like to hazard a guess if the safeguard duty will be higher or lower. The government will decide based on DGTR’s findings and industry feedback,” he said.
Centre May Consider Doubling Duty Amid China Dumping Concerns
Amid reports that the Centre might double the duty to 24%, concerns have mounted over potential dumping of Chinese steel into India. Many Chinese exports are now being redirected to Middle Eastern and African markets, reducing some pressure on Southeast Asia and India, according to Tata Steel MD T.V. Narendran.
Domestic Industry Welcomes Safeguard Measures
The Indian steel industry has welcomed the provisional duty. Several stakeholders believe the move has provided a buffer to local producers during a time of heightened global steel supply. However, vigilance remains high due to China’s large export volumes during March and April 2025.
Strong Steel Demand Outlook: Per Capita Consumption to Rise
India continues to emerge as a global leader in steel demand. According to Secretary Poundrik, the country’s per capita steel consumption, currently at 104 kg, is expected to rise to 155–160 kg by 2030, and further by 2035.
“India is the only major economy recording double-digit growth in steel consumption, with nearly 12% growth over the past three years, compared to 0.5–1% globally,” he noted.
Crackdown on Misuse of BIS Certification
The government has also identified misuse of the BIS (Bureau of Indian Standards) certification process. Some importers with BIS licences were found violating norms, leading to action including revocation of permissions.
“We are plugging all loopholes. Only BIS-compliant companies can import steel into India now,” said Poundrik.
With robust domestic demand, regulatory tightening, and proactive safeguards, India is reinforcing its position as a resilient and growing steel market amid a turbulent global landscape. The upcoming DGTR ruling in August will be crucial in shaping the future of steel imports and domestic pricing.
Source: Moneycontrol