Oil prices are rising sharply amid fresh geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude forecasted to surge past $80 per barrel by the end of 2025. The recent warning issued by former U.S. President Donald Trump to Russia over its Ukraine offensive has rattled global energy markets, stoking fears of a supply shock and fresh economic sanctions.
Brent Crude Price Forecast: $80–$82 by Year-End
According to N.S. Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, Brent crude (October 2025 contract) has already climbed from $72.07 to nearly $76, and is showing strong upside momentum.
“If current momentum continues, Brent is likely to trade between $80 and $82 per barrel by December,” said Ramaswamy. “Sanctions on nations trading with Russia could disrupt global oil flows significantly.”
Brent crude’s immediate support level is pegged at $69, suggesting limited downside unless geopolitical tensions ease dramatically.
Trump’s Ultimatum to Russia: A Major Price Trigger
Driving the latest surge is a 12-day ultimatum from Donald Trump to Russia, demanding a halt to its military actions in Ukraine. The former president has threatened secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries that continue oil trade with Moscow—potentially triggering a massive disruption in the global crude oil supply chain.
Russia’s Role in the Global Oil Market
Russia remains a key global supplier, exporting nearly 5 million barrels of oil per day. Cutting off this supply could send oil prices soaring.
“If Russian oil is removed from the global system, we’re looking at Brent potentially spiking to $100–$120 per barrel, if not higher,” said energy expert Narendra Taneja.
Impact on India: Cost Pressures Ahead
India may not face an immediate supply shortage due to its diversified import basket—sourcing crude from over 40 countries. However, experts warn that managing retail fuel prices could become extremely challenging.
“India’s supply may be secure, but the bigger issue will be maintaining consumer fuel prices amidst global volatility,” Taneja added.
WTI Crude Also Poised for Gains
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is also mirroring Brent’s trajectory. Currently trading at $69.65, WTI is expected to hit $73 in the short term and reach $76–$79 by year-end, with downside support around $65.
Why the Global Oil Market Faces a Supply Shock
The global oil market is already tight, with limited spare production capacity. Any sudden exit of Russian supply could create a sharp deficit. While OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia may step in to boost production, logistical constraints could delay response times—intensifying short-term price pressures.
Despite Trump’s political interest in lower oil prices, analysts believe the U.S. cannot ramp up production fast enough to stabilise markets quickly.
Other Market Drivers: Fed Rates & US Inventories
Investors are also closely tracking:
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US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions
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Weekly oil inventory data
These factors influence crude oil futures, and a stronger US dollar has provided temporary relief. However, geopolitical risks now outweigh macroeconomic factors.
Trade Agreements Offer Stability—But Not Security
While recent agreements like the US-EU trade deal and the extended US-China truce have brought some stability to global trade, they offer limited protection against supply-side oil shocks.
If Russian exports are halted and OPEC+ does not respond swiftly, analysts warn of a global oil crisis, with prices potentially well above $100 per barrel.
Source: Moneycontrol